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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 29th December, 2003, 04:53 AM
ral ral is offline
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How long before we move to AMD64?

Been looking at roadmaps and the number of chnages for next year alone are staggering. I am a bit cheap when it comes to hardware so I will I am fine with Socket 754

Is it worthwihile going to a 0.13 micron AMD 64? Or should I wait for a 0.09 mircon cpu?

Any idea of how long before AMD 64 starts to cost less than $100 fo the entry level offering?
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Old 4th January, 2004, 04:00 PM
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This is an astute question, ral. Rumors say that Intel is developing an x86-64 processor, something they really don't want to do, btw. My guess is that x86-64 capability won't become necessary for home PC's for at least two years.

I have the itch for an A64-3000 machine. The better heeled seem to be waiting for Socket 939 Form Factor and imply that Socket 754 is or will become the modern equivalent of the Duron. Hey, I can live with a "Duron."

AMD's new Athlon 64-3000 costs ~$210 to $240 in the US. If you can buy one for ~$100, you're getting a good deal!
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Old 4th January, 2004, 04:26 PM
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Given there's not even a version of Windows out there to fully support the AMD64 platform, I think the question is a little moot at this point in time!

If Intel come up with a competing 64bit instruction set, things become more interesting. Intel already has it's 64bit VLIW architecture in the form of the Itanium. This is expensive and has to emulate 32bit.

AMD have their x86-64 instruction set for the AMD64 platform.

If Intel come up with a seperate 64bit instruction set for their desktop processors, then Microsoft get left supporting three different versions of 64bit Windows. I doubt that Microsoft want to do that at all, given the overheads involved.

Depending on what Intel do, it might well be Microsoft who get to choose which processors suceed, and which ones fail.
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Old 4th January, 2004, 05:31 PM
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heres a bit of info for you.

Heat. Its only a small word, but is going to cause big trouble for makers of Cutting-edge microprocessors in 2004. Historically, when semi-conductor manufacturing technology goes through a process shrink - that is, when individual parts of a processor are made smaller - the result is more efficient chips. For sure heat and power consumption typically increase, but that is out stripped by performance gains. There are signs that this particular enabler of Moore's Law (the idea that microprocessors performance doubles every 18 months) may run out of steam in 2004.

The mian problem is a phenomenon known as leakage, in which the electrical current passing through a CPU 'leaks' out in the form of heat. Intels Pat Gelsinger explains, "These Very fast devices, at very small gate lengths, start to become very leaky. And we're seeing an increasing percentage of overall power going into leakage power (HEAT). So your not getting the same scaling gains as you would of in the past. Both intel and Amd are graplling with the shift from 130nm (0.13 micron) to 90nm (0.09 micron) process technology already. Pat Gelsinger also believes that when the make the jump to 65mn (0.065 micron) the problem with heat will be even worse. Seeing the same sort of improvements in power to what we are used to is becoming an hard engineering task.

The Pentium 4 Prescott series which incorperates the 0.09 micron architecture is not due out till end of 2004. The New pentium 4 will typically have a clock speed of 4ghz.

We will see what the capabilities of the AMD Athlon 64 when the 64 bit version of windows is relased.

Taken from PCFormat Page 23 0f January 2004 157

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Old 4th January, 2004, 05:52 PM
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If 64-bit wont be useful for two years... aren't the Athlon XP's moving to Socket 754 0.13 micron 32 bit? Maybe that will be a cost efficient solution for 2004. But than again they may not be faster than our current rigs.
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Old 4th January, 2004, 07:09 PM
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I'm waiting till the Socket 939 boards are outs and the 90nm chips come out, hopefully we'll see better overclocking motherboards by that time.
I think win XP64 will be out by that time too.
I think I read somewhere that the end of march will see the release of the 939 boards.
Nvidias 250 chipset is just about out now, might see a performance increase with that.
The current generation of K8 CPU's are the best chips availible but not subtantialy faster than a current fast barton rig or fast northwood system that some people own.
I have to show restraint and wait till hardware that is acutally noticably faster comes out.
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Old 4th January, 2004, 07:16 PM
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ohh and that pcformat article, the 90nm prescotts are out now but only at 2.8ghz, you cant buy them but i've heard their out of the factories.
There are having heat problems and theres talk of them introducing an extra pipeline into the chip so they can ramp up the clock speed more.
More pipelines = less performance per clock (sometimes)
what could end up happening is a 3.6 northwoor chip performing like a 3.7ghz presscott
purely speculation and roumor tho.
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Old 4th January, 2004, 10:25 PM
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I saw that the Athlon-64 3000+ and 3200+ put out 89W of heat. I assume that the larger die area will be able to transfer the heat to a HSF efficiently.

SuSE Linux for AMD x86-64 bit is available. Can't track it down so far but I will.
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Old 4th January, 2004, 10:31 PM
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Linux is one of the better OSes for AMD64 platforms, although I believe that NetBSD also has good support. In terms of distros, things are still a bit 'experimental' at this point in time. Expect problems if you try for Linux on AMD64 platforms!
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Old 5th January, 2004, 12:39 AM
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that 89w is the thermal MAX, in reality it has been measured to be around 60 watt.
Intel specify average watt output.
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Old 5th January, 2004, 02:07 PM
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I guess after putting "some" thought in it, it will be 2005. So I guess I might as well do all I can with my current rig.

Reasons:

AMD 64 FX 51 - AMD new top of the line model. Currently runs 2200MHz and has a 1MB cache and a dual channel memory controller. It uses a 940 pin socket and requires resgistered dimms. The need for registered memeory makes
it a expensive option. You wont be able to use your current memory. AMD does not plan to continue with Socket 940 after 204 so there is no upgrade path after 2004.

Since it runs at 2200MHz so overclocking potential is limited. Notable though is that the FX series is unlocked and will reamin unlocked.

The AMD FX series will move to socket 939 and to a 0.9 micron model in the second half of 2004. So if you are planning to migrate to AMD's top of the

line model. Socket 939 will allow dual channel operation with convetional DDR memory.So the FX series will target the same buyers who buy the Pentium 4 Extreme Editions. Rumor is it that they will not be allowed to drop in price, but simply be phased out. I hope not.

AMD 64 - This is the new mainsteam model. In scaling it takes over the Palomino/Thoroughbred line, rather than the Duron line. It perfromane is closer to the FX's than the Duron are to the XP's.

Currently it can be found in a 2000MHz/512 (XP3000+) cache model and a 2000MHz (XP3200+) and 2200Mz (XP3400) with a 1MB cache . Following AMD's recent trend, It is likely that a 2200MHZ 512kb cache will also be released so that those that have defective caches can be sold by diabling half the cache. Right now this is in Socket 754. It runs single channel and uses convential DDR memory.

Since it runs at 2000MHz~2200MHz, verclocking potential is limited. The AMD 64's will be multiplier locked unlocked. Given that we are now a 400FSB, overclocking potenital will be limitied by FSB (memory and motherboards limits)

The AMD 64 will migrate to socket 939 in the second half of this year, altouhgh i belive they will contine to prodcue SOcket 754 versios but from theri roadmap it does not appear that AMD64 will move to 0.09 micron in socket 754. When

that happens the AMD 64 will also run dual channel. But it will than only be offered in 512 cache models.

So by middle or the third quarter of 2004 all that will separate the FX's will probably be 512kb cache and the unlocked multiplier.
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Old 5th January, 2004, 05:44 PM
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If PC G.A.S.(Gear Acquisition Syndrome) didn't help me ignore the real issues in life, what good would technology be? Thankfully, 32-bit OS's run perfectly with AMD Athlon64 systems. AMD needs customers for their 64-bit processors, the sizzle rather than the steak has to wow the consumer, because 64-bit capability has very little real value for home user's at this point in time, IMHO. Not that it hurts that 2 Ghz 512 Kb L2 A64's @~$230 are nearly equivalent to 3.2 Ghz P4's @~$395 in performance.

AMD was very smart to release half priced "half-L2 cache" A64's. ~$400 for full L2 cache Athlon64's left many user's in the 32-bit zone.
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Old 5th January, 2004, 09:11 PM
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Surely the pcworld article meant end of 2003 for the prescott cpu, as its being sampled now they do exist and do work, they were originally slated for q3 2003 but have now slipped back to q2 2004 mainly due to a lack of boards supporting them. They'll more like be hitting 4Ghz with them by the end of the year though :-)

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Old 7th January, 2004, 02:32 AM
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I thought that 64 bit SuSE Linux would be a breeze for AMD 64. Silly me. Have a look at Anandtech's front page. Big shake up in the Socket 754 price schedule--for the better! The new Athlon64 3400 breathes extra life into the Socket 754 Form Factor.
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Old 7th January, 2004, 03:08 AM
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AMD seems to have wanted to put a damper on the Intel P 4 3.4GHz release. Its even priced at $417 (which is the rumoured price for the P4 3.4).
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Old 11th January, 2004, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ral
Been looking at roadmaps and the number of chnages for next year alone are staggering. I am a bit cheap when it comes to hardware so I will I am fine with Socket 754

Is it worthwihile going to a 0.13 micron AMD 64? Or should I wait for a 0.09 mircon cpu?

Any idea of how long before AMD 64 starts to cost less than $100 fo the entry level offering?
I would wait for a bit. prices will drop. And also something to keep in mind is PCI Express. Right now it's not a issue, but in time it will be and you will be kicking yourself if you buy a MB now that does not have it!!!
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Old 11th January, 2004, 02:36 PM
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Apparently, AMD didn't make it's production targets last year for the AMD64 chips. So, prices are not likely to fall just yet. I guess it depends on how many chips they manage to produce over the next few months.
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Old 11th January, 2004, 03:52 PM
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As consumers, the best thing we can hope for is that Intel comes out with x86-64 soon, and that AMD can produce as many A64s as they want.

ATM, AMD wants to port AXPs over to 754 for the bargain basement (sub $100), and this in their minds will justify keeping A64 in the "mid" range category.

I've been buying sub $100 cpus from AMD for a long time now... and I have no reason to move to the 754 platform without a significant upgrade in performance and I'm not spending $200+ on cpus to get there.

Intel being able to match 64bit CPUs and overstock of A64 will cause AMD's house of cards... er... business planning to come crashing down.
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Old 11th January, 2004, 07:36 PM
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In the past I would buy a new PC when my current rig was too slow to run my games... these days I am more into hardware for its own sake.

I dont think I would be happy running a PC i could not overclock. So I guess, I am waiting for the next T-bred and don't wana buy a Pali. I always tended to be a bottom feeder, buy the slowest and cheapest of the current model. But since I started overclocking last March, I proably would not be satisifed buying soemthing that did not perform subtantially better than what I paid for.

I guess its sort of liek I am expecting AMD to give us something we can overclock. Is that uncreasonable? Am starting to think the T-Bred might have spoiled me.

Did not overclock my first few PC's but if I got my AMD K6-2 350Mz to 400 or my PIII 500 Katmai to 550MHz that would have been a good overclock for the time.

Oh well... just rambling.
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Old 11th January, 2004, 11:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by punjig
also something to keep in mind is PCI Express.
I hope that people going to migrate to PCI Express or PCI-X remember that both PCI Express and PCI-X require APIC to be enabled. No APIC means no PCI Express or PCI-X.
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